Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Can anyone stop Trump?

I finally got around to writing this... I wanted to start this after the results of the Nevada caucuses, and get this done before Super Tuesday, which is happening as I am finishing this up. Keep in mind I also wrote most of this before John Oliver's brilliant rant Sunday night. From the looks of things, Donald Trump is probably going to take the Republican nomination, and face Hillary in November. This is not a good thing. It's not good for our country, and it's self-destructive for the Republican Party.

Making matters worse is that the idiots in charge of New Jersey and NASCAR have pledged their support to Trump.

The Donald doesn't know squat about politics or policy, he is running a campaign based on hatred and anger, and a Trump presidency will be nothing short of a disaster.

Why is this happening? I can think of several reasons.

1. Other Republicans in the race like Jeb, Rubio and Kasich brushed off Trump's insults, waiting for him to self-destruct and go away. Many people, myself included, are surprised that didn't happen.  When other candidates finally decided to fire back at him, it was too late.

2. Many Americans are angry. Most of them are old people. Many (not all) old people complain a lot because they are retired and have nothing better to do. Old people usually vote. You probably have at least one Facebook friend or friend of a friend that puts up posts and memes that have you shaking your head. They are angry at Obama, and believe he should be impeached for any number of reasons. They are angry at all those damn foreigners taking our jobs. If they are here illegally, they are breaking the law and should be sent home! They are angry at the Muslims, because all 1.5 billion of them are terrorists, and the Qu'Ran tells them that it is okay to rape and kill non-Muslims. Trump is feeding off this anger, and people are loving his plans to deport all 11 million illegal immigrants, build a giant wall with Mexico's money and ban any more Muslims from entering our country. I am not sure whether he truly believes this, or if he is a salesman pitching a product by feeding on people's emotions. After all, he has made many huge deals with businessmen and sheiks in the Middle East.

3. People like the fact that he has no speechwriters, everything he says is off the cuff, and he has no filter. His supporters don't seem to mind that he comes of as misogynist and xenophobic. No one even blinked when he used the word "pussy" during one of his speeches, and he wasn't talking about a cat.

4. People like the fact that his campaign is self-funded (not entirely true), and, unlike Jeb and Hillary, his campaign war chest isn't filled by large corporations. (This is actually a good point).

5. The other nominees are idiots. (In some cases, another good point).

Is there any way to stop this from happening? Honestly, I don't think so. But, in order to even have a chance, the party needs to throw their chips behind one candidate and make it a two-person race. Who? Let's do this by the process of elimination:
Ben Carson is a non-factor at this point.
John Kasich is the sole Republican candidate who somewhat resembles a human being. His numbers suck so far, but he is staying in it on the off chance he can win Michigan and his home state of Ohio. This won't happen, so he needs to throw in the towel.
Ted Cruz is a pompous prick, and is almost as contemptible as Trump. The party and his fellow senators hate him because he puts his own principles above those of the Senate and the country. If he becomes president, there will be government gridlock similar to our budget impasse in Pennsylvania that is now almost a year old. He is trying to court evangelical voters, but his loss in the bible-thumping haven of South Carolina proves he doesn't have a prayer (pun intended). Unfortunately, he is too much of an arrogant ass to drop out. Hopefully he will get the message after he loses his home state of Texas. It should also be mentioned that he was born in Canada. The same "birthers" that continue to make the baseless argument about whether Obama was born here sure as hell better go after Cruz in the very unlikely event he advances in this race. The Constitution can be interpreted in different ways, but I do not believe, by definition, that Cruz is a "natural-born citizen."
Marco Rubio is the so-called "party establishment" candidate, and the GOP's best hope in this farce of a race. Rubio is a typical Republican who wants to shrink government and cut taxes for big businesses and rich people, but seems a bit more palatable than the other Republicans. Again, I don't think Rubio can upset Trump, because a lot of Cruz supporters would migrate to Trump.

For the most part, no matter how outrageous Trump's behavior is, people still support him. There seems to be a little bit of backlash after he did not disavow former KKK Grand Dragon and all-around awful human being David Duke, who pledged his support to Trump. Because Virginia has an open primary system, some Democrats are choosing to vote in the Republican election specifically to stop Trump on Super Tuesday.  (Update: It didn't work). Also, a friend of mine who is a Republican officeholder in Pennsylvania, and who I consider to be a very decent and intelligent person, pleaded on Facebook for his fellow politicians to stop Trump from wrecking the party.

So what happens from here? Some people are saying the GOP convention might be "brokered," meaning there may be some backroom deals made to prevent Trump from getting the nomination if he can't get the 1,237 delegates during the primary elections. As much as I dislike Trump, I hope this doesn't happen because, at the end of the day, the people, not the party bigwigs, should choose the nominee. Also, if this happens, Trump will likely break his pledge, and run as an independent. In this case, he will either win, or at least get enough votes to throw the election to the House of Representatives. The question will then arise whether Congress will mirror the popular vote, or choose a candidate on their own. The mere thought of this and how it will affect the country gives me nightmares.

The more likely scenario pits Trump against Hillary. Sorry, but Bernie Sanders, although he did better than many expected, is merely a speed bump on the road to Hillary's nomination.

The former first lady is obviously the more experienced and qualified candidate, and I believe she truly cares about this country and its people. However, she has a likability problem, and that may cost her votes like it did 8 years ago. I don't think the e-mail issue or Benghazi has much of an effect, but her personality will, and, as we saw with Jeb Bush, people are sick of political "dynasties."

In the end, this will come down to the campaigns and the debates. Hopefully these will further illustrate how qualified and knowledgeable Mrs. Clinton is, and how Trump is little more than a snake oil salesman.

Update: After Super Tuesday, it looks like Cruz is the GOP's best shot at stopping Trump. He took four states, and won big in his home state of Texas. Rubio was only able to eke out a win in Minnesota, and is understandably sticking around to see how he does in his home state of Florida. Some Republicans are indicating that, if needed, they will reluctantly support Cruz. Unless Cruz is able to get enough delegates in the primaries to block Trump from getting a majority (leading to a brokered convention), it still looks like it will be a Trump v. Clinton general election. (IMHO, if it ends up being Clinton v. Cruz, Ted Cruz would get steamrolled by Hillary.)

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